Ledger
What I believe, and how sure I am
Every claim made in the notebook, with a probability attached. Estimates are revised in public, never silently edited. When a claim resolves it’s scored, so over time this page shows whether my confidence means anything.
Scorecard
- Open
- 0
- Revised estimates
- 0
- Resolved
- 0
- Brier score
- n/a
The Brier score is the mean squared error of my probabilities on resolved claims. Zero is perfect; always answering 50% scores 0.25.
Open
0 claims
No open claims yet. The first ones arrive with the first essays.
Calibration
Each dot groups resolved claims by the confidence I gave them. If I’m calibrated, things I call 70% likely happen about 70% of the time, and the dots sit on the diagonal.
House rules
- A claim is specific enough that someone could prove it wrong.
- Probabilities are revised with a dated note, never overwritten.
- Resolution criteria are written before the evidence comes in.
- Refuted claims stay on the page.